欧佩克的最大担忧正在成为现实匠作工具

中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2021年3月25日伦敦报道，美国石油钻井工人不再坐在战壕里，等待大流行病的风暴过去。达拉斯联邦储备银行第一季度能源调查结果显示，新冠肺炎确证病例数再次进入增长模式。达拉斯联邦储备银行能源调查的受访者表示，由于油价反弹，石油领域的活动正在扩大。而且业务活动指数正在强劲扩大：从去年第四季度的仅为18.5，到今年第一季度飙升至53.6。

这个数据支持了来自其他机构的证据：在用钻机数量正在稳步上升。石油产量也是如此：根据美国能源信息署(EIA)发布的最新一期每周报告，在3月26日结束的一周里，美国石油产量平均为1100万桶/天。这仍然比去年同期的平均水平低200万桶/天，但高于前一周的平均水平和截至3月19日的四周平均水平。这些迹象似乎表明了欧佩克最担忧的事情：美国页岩油生产正在回归。

达拉斯联邦储备银行在调查报告中称，资本支出正在回升，该指数从去年第四季度的12.5升至31。此外，油气行业对未来也很乐观，计划明年进一步增加支出。

达拉斯联邦储备银行表示，还有一点坏消息，成本也在上升。另一方面，由于钻井活动的恢复，工作正在重返石油行业，主要是油田服务行业。第一季度，油田服务行业的就业指数为23.5，而勘探和生产行业的就业指数仅为1。

回到成本问题上：受访者表示，在二叠纪盆地(特拉华州盆地除外)钻一口新井将在53美元/桶的油价下实现收支平衡。而去年这个时候是49美元。调查显示，二叠纪地区一口井的盈亏平衡价格为50美元，比去年高出1美元。

然而，在特拉华州盆地和二叠纪远景区的米德兰部分以及鹰福特远景区钻一口新井的盈利成本较低，分别为49美元、46美元和46美元。现有井的盈利水平要低得多。

因此，美国的钻井公司重新开始钻探，西德克萨斯中质原油的价格明显高于盈亏平衡点，即使是在页岩开采成本最高的地区。

欧佩克会怎么做?

一位业内高管表示，“虽然油价上涨一直是一个令人高兴的消息，但欧佩克+是一把达摩克利斯之剑：如果美国运营商提高资本支出，欧佩克+将打开其闸门，让原油大量涌入市场。“目前紧张局势有所缓和。”

在他们的价格预测中，业内人士对西德克萨斯中质原油的平均价格预测为每桶61.13美元。而上个季度的平均价格为49.77美元。对油价的预测区间也很有说服力:从每桶45美元的低位到每桶85美元的高位，预测区间各不相同，反映出对油价乐观情绪的回归。去年全球石油行业是受新冠肺炎疫情打击最严重的行业之一。

这种乐观情绪在一定程度上是由于人们预期美国政府的新能源政策将导致石油供应趋紧，而石油供应趋紧将自动推高油价。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

OPEC’s Biggest Fear Is Becoming A Reality

U.S. oil drillers are no longer sitting in the trenches, waiting for the pandemic storm to pass. They are once again in growth mode电泳仪, according to the first-quarter energy survey by the Dallas Federal Reserve. As oil prices rebound, activity in the oil patch is expanding, respondents to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey said. And it is expanding strongly: from a reading of just 18.5 for the fourth quarter of 2020, the business activity index of the survey soared as high as 53.6 over the first quarter of this year.

The data supports evidence from other agencies: the number of active drilling rigs is steadily rising. So is production: according to the latest weekly report by the Energy Information Administration, oil production last week averaged 11 million bpd. That’s still 2 million bpd below the average for this time last year, but above the average for a week earlier and the four-week average for the period ending on March 19. The signs seem to point to what OPEC feared the most: U.S. shale is returning.

Capital spending is returning, the Dallas Fed reported in its survey. From an index of 12.5 for the fourth quarter of 2020, it has now gone up to 31. What’s more, the industry is upbeat about the future, too, planning to boost spending further next year.

In a bit of bad news, costs are also on the rise, the Dallas Fed said. On the flip side, jobs are returning to the oil patch, mostly in oilfield services, thanks to renewed drilling activity. The index for OFS jobs stood at 23.5 in the first quarter, although for exploration and production companies, it stood at just 1.

Back to costs: respondents in the survey said drilling a new well i木线嵌条n the Permian (except the Delaware Basi温控开关n) would breakeven at $53/barrel. This compares with $49 this time last year. The breakeven price for a well in the Permian, according to the survey, stood at $50, which was $1 higher than last year.

Yet the costs of profitably drilling a new well were lower in the Delaware Basin and the Midland part of the Permian play, as well as in the Eagle Ford play, at $49, $46, and $46, respectively. The profitability levels for existing wells were much lower.

So, U.S. drillers are back to drilling, with West Texas Intermediate comfortably higher than breakeven prices, even in the costliest parts of the shale patch. What would OPEC do?

“W光波浴房hile the price increases have been welcome news, OPEC+ is a sword of Damocles: if U.S. operators raise capital expenditures, OPEC+ will open its taps and flood the market,” one industry executive said. “There is a tense detente currently.”

This tense détente will likely continue as OPEC cannot really afford to open its taps right now—not when oil prices are still lower than what Saudi Arabia needs to balance its budget. If the respondents in the Dallas Fed survey are right, they will continue to be lower for a while longer.

In their price forecasts, industry insiders gave an average price projection for West Texas Intermediate of $61.13 per barrel. This compared with an average of $49.77 last quarter. The range of price forecasts was telling, too: projections varied from a low of $45 per barrel to a high of $85 per barrel, reflecting the return of price optimism in one of the industries that suffered the worst blow from the pandemic.

The optimism is in part fuelled by expectations that Biden administration policies will lead to tighter oil supply, which will automatically push prices higher